Analysis of capital flows, investment trends, and financial market positioning.
Money & Markets
The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran brought a wave of relief to markets on April 8. Oil fell sharply. Stocks surged. But four days on, the world is discovering that a ceasefire and a reopened strait are not the same thing. As of April 12, just seven
Investments
Two of Blue Owl Capital's largest funds gated investor withdrawals in early April after redemption requests overwhelmed available liquidity. Investors sought to pull 40.7% of shares from one fund and nearly 22% from another. The firm said the gating mechanism was working as designed, but markets took
Money & Markets
With Qatar's gas no longer flowing after Qatar Energy declared force majeure on its contracts, European countries scrambled to find alternatives. Italy's Prime Minister visited Algeria in late March to secure larger volumes of Algerian natural gas. Algeria already supplies about 30% of Italy's
Stocks
March was a month when almost nowhere was safe. The S&P 500 fell 1.9% over the period, dragged down by a sharp drop in technology stocks, which lost 3.5% as a group. Communication services fared even worse, shedding 7.2%. Energy was the lone bright spot,
Money & Markets
Brent crude closed at $112.96 on April 2, its highest level in over a decade and a half, after Iran declared a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. That single waterway normally carries about 20 million barrels of oil per day, roughly one-fifth of everything the world
Stocks
Stock markets around the world fell sharply after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that investors are being too optimistic about the economic outlook. The Nasdaq officially entered correction territory, down more than 10% from its recent peak. European markets dropped 2.8%. Asian stocks fell across the board.
Investments
Mexico's central bank, known as Banxico, shocked markets on March 27 by cutting interest rates 25 basis points to 6.75%, even though inflation is running at 4.63%, well above the 3% target. The decision was highly controversial within the bank itself. The vote was 3 to
Investments
US Treasury bonds, long considered the safest investment in the world, just got a scary warning. Iran's parliament speaker said that US treasury bonds are "soaked in Iranians' blood" and suggested that bond holders could become targets in the escalating conflict. The comments sent shockwaves
Personal Finance
Australian drivers are feeling real pain at the pump. Petrol prices jumped from $1.69 per liter to $2.38 per liter in just one month. That's a 70 cent increase, or about 40% more than what people were paying in February. Fill up a 60 liter tank
Personal Finance
Mortgage rates just hit 6.22% for a 30 year fixed rate loan, the highest level in more than three months. That's up from 6.11% just a week ago and 5.87% in February. For anyone trying to buy a home, this is painful timing. Freddie Mac
Investments
President Donald Trump just issued a 48 hour ultimatum to Iran, and oil markets responded by spiking to $113 a barrel. The White House warned that if Iran doesn't fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping within two days, the US will escalate military action significantly.
Stocks
The Russell 2000 index officially entered correction territory this week, falling more than 10% from its recent peak. Small cap stocks are now the first major US index to hit this painful milestone, and it's a warning sign for the broader market. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,