Oil Above $110, And the World Is Feeling It
Brent crude closed at $112.96 on April 2, its highest level in over a decade and a half, after Iran declared a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. That single waterway normally carries about 20 million barrels of oil per day, roughly one-fifth of everything the world burns. Now almost nothing is moving through it.
The International Energy Agency said this is the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market, bigger even than the two crises of the 1970s combined. In March alone, Brent rose more than 60%, its biggest monthly climb since records began. Spot cargoes for immediate delivery briefly touched $141 a barrel, reflecting just how tight physical supply has become.
Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 US inflation forecast by 0.8 percentage points to 2.9%, and trimmed GDP growth to 2.2%. In an extreme scenario where disruption stretches a full month, they see inflation reaching 3.3%. The odds of a US recession this year, in Goldman's view, have risen to 25%. Oxford Economics warns that if global oil averages $140 for two months, the eurozone, UK, and Japan could contract. The IEA's own head put it plainly: April will be twice as bad as March.
Brent crude (April 2): $112.96/barrel – Highest close since 2008
Spot cargo peak: $141/barrel – Reflecting acute physical shortage
Global supply disrupted: ~20 million barrels/day — 20% of world daily consumption
US inflation forecast (Goldman): 2.9% for 2026 – Revised up by 0.8 percentage points
