The Ceasefire Held, But the Strait Still Is Not Open
The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran brought a wave of relief to markets on April 8. Oil fell sharply. Stocks surged. But four days on, the world is discovering that a ceasefire and a reopened strait are not the same thing.
As of April 12, just seven vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in the first 24 hours after the deal, compared to the more than 100 that passed through every day before the war began. More than 600 vessels, including 325 tankers, remain stranded inside the Gulf according to Lloyd's List Intelligence. Iran's navy released a map showing new, narrower designated shipping lanes running close to its coast. Ships must now request Iranian permission to pass. At least one vessel paid $2 million for the right.
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company CEO Sultan Al Jaber was unambiguous: "The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled." US President Trump accused Iran of doing a very poor job of honoring its commitment to safe passage. JD Vance announced on April 12 that talks in Islamabad had collapsed after 21 hours of negotiations.
Markets caught the signal. Oil, which had fallen to $94.75 after the ceasefire, climbed back above $97 per barrel within 48 hours. Hapag Lloyd, one of the world's largest shipping companies, confirmed it is still refraining from transiting the strait, citing crew safety. Shipping executives say a return to normal is weeks, if not months, away.
Key Figures: • Vessels transiting daily before war: 100 or more. Post ceasefire: 5 to 11 • Tankers still stranded in Gulf: 325 or more • Brent crude rebound: back above $97 per barrel after ceasefire dip • US Iran Islamabad talks: collapsed April 12 after 21 hours
