Africa Becomes Europe's Gas Lifeline

With Qatar's gas no longer flowing after Qatar Energy declared force majeure on its contracts, European countries scrambled to find alternatives. Italy's Prime Minister visited Algeria in late March to secure larger volumes of Algerian natural gas. Algeria already supplies about 30% of Italy's annual needs; that share is now growing to cover what Qatar used to provide.

Spain moved in parallel, pursuing its own talks with Algeria for increased supply. Across sub-Saharan Africa, ports with fuel storage and bunkering capacity, particularly in West and East Africa, are recording a surge in business as shipping companies reroute tankers away from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. What began as a crisis for oil-importing African nations is, in a narrow set of cases, turning into an unlikely commercial opportunity.

For most of Africa, though, the picture is harder. The continent's average public debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 63% heading into 2026, with interest payments consuming nearly 15% of government revenues. Around 40% of African nations are either over-indebted or at high risk of becoming so. Rising fertilizer costs tied to the Hormuz closure threaten food prices during spring planting season, adding another layer of pressure on already stretched household budgets.

Africa average debt-to-GDP: 63% — Interest payments = 15% of revenues (World Bank)

African GDP growth forecast 2026: 4.0% — Up from 3.9% in 2025 (UN)

Algeria gas supply to Italy: ~30% of annual needs — Now rising post-Qatar force majeure

Sub-Saharan Africa growth (2026): 4.3% — World Bank Global Economic Prospects