Australian households are being squeezed from multiple directions at once, and a decision on Tuesday could make it considerably worse. Markets are pricing an 86% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at its May 5 meeting, which
Brazil carries some of the highest real interest rates anywhere in the world right now, and that fact is quietly reshaping the country's investment map. With short-term rates pegged at 15%, the lagged effects of tight monetary policy are eroding purchasing power and restricting consumer spending. The
In a move that caught some investors off guard given the broader global uncertainty, Moody's Ratings revised China's credit outlook to stable from negative, describing it as a reflection of economic and fiscal strength that will remain resilient to ongoing domestic challenges and trade and geopolitical
Something unusual is happening in Japan's government bond market, and it matters well beyond Tokyo. The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield hit 2.496% in mid-April, the highest since 1997, with yields settling at 2.468% after the Bank of Japan's latest policy
Indian equities kicked off May on a bullish note. The BSE Sensex climbed 997 points on Monday as Maruti Suzuki reported record total sales for April, up 33.29% year-on-year, with domestic sales hitting an all-time high of 191,122 units versus 142,053 the prior year.
When the European Central Bank postponed its planned rate reductions in March and the Bank of England held rates at 3.75%, both decisions were framed as prudent caution in the face of uncertainty. That framing has not changed in the weeks since, but the underlying dilemma has sharpened considerably.
The Strait of Hormuz is roughly 33 miles wide at its narrowest point. Through that narrow passage flows roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply. Since Iran effectively closed the strait in early March 2026, that chokepoint has become the central variable in fiscal budget
The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to vote Wednesday on Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve, a vote that was blocked for weeks by Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina until the Department of Justice dropped its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell last Friday. With that obstacle
The Federal Reserve goes into its April 28-29 FOMC meeting with interest rates sitting at 3.50% to 3.75%, exactly where they were after the March 18 decision. Markets have priced in a 100% probability of no change, according to CME FedWatch data, and Fed funds futures suggest
The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook devoted an entire chapter to the macroeconomic consequences of rising defense spending, and the findings are timely. As geopolitical tensions intensify, governments around the world are scaling up military budgets at a pace not seen in decades. In a typical defense spending
If the United States is feeling the oil shock in its inflation data, Europe is absorbing it through something far more dangerous: the prospect of simultaneous high inflation and near-zero growth. The European Central Bank’s own warning is stark. A prolonged Middle East conflict will likely trigger a
The numbers from the International Energy Agency’s April 2026 Oil Market Report are difficult to overstate. Global oil supply fell by 10.1 million barrels per day to 97 million barrels per day in March, following continued attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and the de facto