Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve goes into its April 28-29 FOMC meeting with interest rates sitting at 3.50% to 3.75%, exactly where they were after the March 18 decision. Markets have priced in a 100% probability of no change, according to CME FedWatch data, and Fed funds futures suggest rates
Monetary Policy
India is in an unusual position for a central bank. Its economy is the fastest-growing among large nations, projected at 7.4% for the current fiscal year, and yet its monetary authority is being asked to act with caution usually reserved for economies in distress. The Reserve Bank of India
Monetary Policy
Germany's fiscal transformation is the most dramatic economic policy shift in Europe in a generation. After decades of strict borrowing limits that kept the country's finances tight but also left its infrastructure ageing, its military depleted, and its economy increasingly stagnant, Berlin has thrown open the
Monetary Policy
The European Central Bank meets on April 29 to 30, and this is shaping up to be one of the most genuinely uncertain rate decisions in years. Markets are currently pricing in a hold for April, followed by a hike in June, according to LSEG data. The majority of traders
Monetary Policy
At the April 9 Spring Meetings curtain raiser in Washington, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivered the clearest guidance to central banks that the fund has issued in years. Her message was precise: stay on hold for now, but have a clear trigger ready for action. There is value in
Monetary Policy
The European Central Bank had been on a path toward lower interest rates heading into 2026, with its deposit rate at 2% and inflation broadly near target. That plan hit a wall on March 19 when the ECB postponed its planned rate reductions, raised its 2026 inflation forecast, and cut
Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its March 18 meeting, keeping the federal funds rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range. It was the second pause of 2026, following three consecutive rate cuts that closed out last year. Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged plainly that near-term inflation expectations have
Monetary Policy
A wave of interest rate cuts is sweeping across Africa as inflation finally eases after years of pain. Six central banks cut rates in the first quarter of 2026: Kenya, Egypt, Angola, Ghana, Mozambique, and Zambia. It's one of the most coordinated monetary easing cycles the continent has
Monetary Policy
New Zealand just delivered an inflation surprise that's forcing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to completely rethink its monetary policy plans. Consumer price inflation came in at 3.1% for the fourth quarter of 2025, above the RBNZ's 1% to 3% target band and well
Monetary Policy
Just a few weeks ago, markets were confident the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in 2026. Investors were pricing in a 70% probability of at least one rate cut by June. Wall Street analysts were telling clients to expect lower rates by summer. That entire narrative just died. Markets
Monetary Policy
The Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75% on March 19, and on the surface that sounds like nothing changed. But look closer at what the market is doing, and you see a completely different story. Investors are now pricing in four quarter point rate hikes by the
Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve meets this week on March 17 and 18, and almost everyone expects the same outcome: nothing changes. Markets are pricing in a 92% chance that interest rates stay exactly where they are, stuck between 3.5% and 3.75%. But here's the thing. Even though