Money & Markets
China posted one of the most striking trade results in recent memory in early March. Exports grew 21.8% in US dollar terms in January and February combined, nearly triple the 7.1% growth analysts had expected and up sharply from the 6.6% recorded in December. The trade surplus
Money & Markets
The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran brought a wave of relief to markets on April 8. Oil fell sharply. Stocks surged. But four days on, the world is discovering that a ceasefire and a reopened strait are not the same thing. As of April 12, just seven
Policy Watch
Argentina is the rare economy where things are genuinely getting better, and the speed of the improvement is catching the attention of policymakers well beyond Buenos Aires. After hitting inflation of nearly 290% in 2024, the country has brought that figure down toward low double digits through a combination of
Monetary policy
The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.75% at its March meeting, the highest level since 1995. The decision was expected, and passed 8-1, with one board member pushing for an immediate move to 1%. The Bank's official position is that Japan'
Monetary Policy
The European Central Bank had been on a path toward lower interest rates heading into 2026, with its deposit rate at 2% and inflation broadly near target. That plan hit a wall on March 19 when the ECB postponed its planned rate reductions, raised its 2026 inflation forecast, and cut
Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its March 18 meeting, keeping the federal funds rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range. It was the second pause of 2026, following three consecutive rate cuts that closed out last year. Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged plainly that near-term inflation expectations
Economic growth
South Africa's economy grew 1.1% in 2025, its fastest pace in three years, and a meaningful improvement over the 0.5% recorded the year before. The agriculture, trade, and finance sectors all contributed. Power supply has been more reliable, and some of the logistical bottlenecks that throttled
Economic growth
Latin America is on track to grow 2.3% in 2026, roughly matching the past three years and suggesting the region has settled into a period of modest but stable expansion. Argentina stands out as the most dramatic turnaround story: after back-to-back recessions, the economy is rebounding, inflation
Economic growth
India remains the standout among large economies, with the IMF projecting 6.3% to 6.5% growth in 2026. That pace is driven by strong consumer spending, a manufacturing expansion supported by government incentive schemes, and continued growth in digital services. India is also benefiting from a steady shift of
Economic Pulse
The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook projects global growth of 3.3% for 2026, a slight upward revision from the October 2025 forecast. The World Bank, separately, raised its own estimate to 2.6%, reflecting a global economy that has proved more durable than many expected in the
Investments
Two of Blue Owl Capital's largest funds gated investor withdrawals in early April after redemption requests overwhelmed available liquidity. Investors sought to pull 40.7% of shares from one fund and nearly 22% from another. The firm said the gating mechanism was working as designed, but markets took
Money & Markets
With Qatar's gas no longer flowing after Qatar Energy declared force majeure on its contracts, European countries scrambled to find alternatives. Italy's Prime Minister visited Algeria in late March to secure larger volumes of Algerian natural gas. Algeria already supplies about 30% of Italy's