Fiscal Policy

Fiscal Policy

Argentina Is Back in the Market, and Investors Are Watching Closely

Argentina is expected to regain access to international capital markets in 2026. That is a sentence that would have seemed implausible just two years ago. Country risk ratings have fallen from 2,500 basis points in late 2023 to around 600 basis points by the end of 2025, a collapse

Fiscal Policy

The UK's Political Shift Is a Financial Warning

The results from England's local elections in early May 2026 landed like an economic signal as much as a political one. Reform UK made sweeping gains across former Labour strongholds, with voter frustration centered on three issues: the economy, immigration, and taxes. When a governing party loses ground

Fiscal Policy

The Strait of Hormuz and the Fiscal Calculations No One Wants to Make

The Strait of Hormuz is roughly 33 miles wide at its narrowest point. Through that narrow passage flows roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply. Since Iran effectively closed the strait in early March 2026, that chokepoint has become the central variable in fiscal budget

Fiscal Policy

The IMF Just Told Every Government in the World What Not to Do Right Now

When the IMF publishes its World Economic Outlook, most people focus on the growth and inflation numbers. But buried in the April 2026 report is a set of policy instructions to governments that is arguably more important than any single forecast. At the Spring Meetings in Washington, IMF Managing Director

Fiscal Policy

China Is Spending $51 Billion to Revive Its Economy. Will It Be Enough?

China's National Development and Reform Commission confirmed in January 2026 that the government would front load 295 billion yuan ($42 billion) into strategic national initiatives, combined with a further $9 billion in direct consumer subsidies, a total package of roughly $51 billion deployed early in the year. The

Fiscal Policy

Ghana Is About to Exit Its IMF Bailout and Markets Are Watching

Ghana is preparing to exit a $3 billion IMF bailout programme by August 2026, and it is doing so from a position that would have seemed unimaginable during the country's 2022 debt crisis. At that time, inflation was above 54%, the cedi had lost most of its value,

Fiscal Policy

Germany Is Rearming and the Whole of Europe Is Being Forced to Choose

Germany's decision to borrow over €180 billion in 2026, with €83 billion earmarked for defence alone, is not just a German story. It is reshaping the fiscal and industrial logic of the entire European Union. The move has created a precedent that other EU countries are watching closely.

Fiscal Policy

France Sees Factory Closures Jump 30% as Asian Competition and Tariffs Bite

France is facing a manufacturing crisis. Factory closures jumped 30% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year. Industrial production is contracting. Jobs are being lost. And there's no quick fix in sight. The dual pressures of Asian competition and US tariffs are

Fiscal Policy

China Cuts GDP Growth Target to Lowest Since the 1990s

China just announced its GDP growth target for 2026, and it's the lowest in decades. The government is aiming for 4.5% to 5% growth, down from around 5% in 2025. That might not sound like a big drop, but for China, it's a massive shift.

Fiscal Policy

U.S. Fiscal Expansion and the Debt Question