Food Prices Are About to Follow Energy Prices. The World Is Not Ready.
The World Bank, IMF, and UN World Food Programme issued a rare joint statement on April 8 warning that the oil and gas shock from the Middle East war will inevitably translate into higher food prices and food insecurity across the world. The burden, they said, will fall most heavily on low-income, import-dependent economies. This was not a theoretical forecast. It was a warning about something that was already in motion.
The mechanism is direct. About 30% to 35% of globally traded fertilizer, specifically urea used to grow staple crops, normally flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The closure disrupted that supply just as spring planting season was beginning in the northern hemisphere. World Bank commodity data showed urea prices surging nearly 46% month on month between February and March 2026. Higher fertilizer costs mean higher food production costs, which means higher grocery prices, typically three to six months after the supply disruption begins.
The UN World Food Programme estimated that the conflict could push up to 45 million additional people into acute hunger by mid-2026 if disruptions continue. The IMF told Reuters it did not yet see a full-blown food crisis, but acknowledged that the risk grows significantly if fertilizer delivery is impaired for an extended period. Both institutions noted that the countries least able to absorb the shock, those already carrying high debt and limited fiscal space, are the ones most exposed.
Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable. Most of its economies import fertilizer and refined fuel. Many were already running food inflation above 10% heading into this year. Nigeria's food inflation hit a five-month high of 14.31% in March. In Kenya, food drove headline inflation to 4.4% that same month. The reopening of the Hormuz strait this week reduces the immediate risk, but the fertilizer supply chain disruption has a lag. Crops planted with too little fertilizer this spring will yield smaller harvests this autumn.
Key Metrics:
Urea price spike (February to March 2026): up 46% month on month
Fertilizer via Hormuz: approximately 30% to 35% of global traded supply
WFP estimate: up to 45 million additional people at risk of acute hunger by mid-2026
Nigeria food inflation (March 2026): 14.31%; Kenya: 4.4%
