China's Exports Are Surging Despite Everything
China posted one of the most striking trade results in recent memory in early March. Exports grew 21.8% in US dollar terms in January and February combined, nearly triple the 7.1% growth analysts had expected and up sharply from the 6.6% recorded in December. The trade surplus for those two months came in at $213.6 billion, far above the $179.6 billion economists forecast and well above the $169 billion recorded in the same period of 2025.
The numbers were powered by a semiconductor boom. Chip exports rose 66.5% year on year, the fastest growth in over a decade, fueled by global demand for AI related hardware and a shortage in memory chips. Electronics broadly surged. Even clothing and textiles, which had struggled in 2025, posted surprising gains. China's full year 2025 trade surplus reached a record $1.2 trillion.
China's government has set a 2026 growth target of 4.5% to 5%, a slight step down from 2025. But the export machine is still running hard. Beijing has front loaded $51 billion in spending for 2026 to support domestic consumption and investment, a signal that policymakers know they cannot rely on exports alone indefinitely, especially with 145% or higher US tariffs in place on many Chinese goods. The government's five year plan, approved in early 2026, pledges to make domestic demand the primary growth driver. Economists are skeptical that shift will happen quickly.
Key Figures:
• China exports (January to February 2026): up 21.8% in USD terms vs forecast of 7.1%
• Trade surplus (January to February 2026): $213.6 billion
• Semiconductor exports: up 66.5% year on year
• China 2026 growth target: 4.5% to 5.0%
