Monetary Policy
When the European Central Bank postponed its planned rate reductions in March and the Bank of England held rates at 3.75%, both decisions were framed as prudent caution in the face of uncertainty. That framing has not changed in the weeks since, but the underlying dilemma has sharpened considerably.
Fiscal Policy
The Strait of Hormuz is roughly 33 miles wide at its narrowest point. Through that narrow passage flows roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply. Since Iran effectively closed the strait in early March 2026, that chokepoint has become the central variable in fiscal budget
Monetary Policy
The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to vote Wednesday on Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve, a vote that was blocked for weeks by Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina until the Department of Justice dropped its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell last Friday. With that obstacle
Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve goes into its April 28-29 FOMC meeting with interest rates sitting at 3.50% to 3.75%, exactly where they were after the March 18 decision. Markets have priced in a 100% probability of no change, according to CME FedWatch data, and Fed funds futures suggest rates
Economic Pulse
The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook devoted an entire chapter to the macroeconomic consequences of rising defense spending, and the findings are timely. As geopolitical tensions intensify, governments around the world are scaling up military budgets at a pace not seen in decades. In a typical defense spending
Economic growth
If the United States is feeling the oil shock in its inflation data, Europe is absorbing it through something far more dangerous: the prospect of simultaneous high inflation and near-zero growth. The European Central Bank’s own warning is stark. A prolonged Middle East conflict will likely trigger a period
Economic Pulse
The numbers from the International Energy Agency’s April 2026 Oil Market Report are difficult to overstate. Global oil supply fell by 10.1 million barrels per day to 97 million barrels per day in March, following continued attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and the de facto
Economic growth
Every April, the International Monetary Fund releases its World Economic Outlook and the report sets the tone for how policymakers and investors think about the global economy for the months ahead. The April 2026 edition, titled “Global Economy in the Shadow of War,” is the most sobering in recent memory.
Personal Finance
For most American households, the Iran war is not an abstract geopolitical event. It is showing up at the pump, in grocery receipts, and on utility bills. U.S. retail gasoline prices averaged $3.99 per gallon as of March 30, the highest in real terms in over two years.
Stocks
In the middle of a war-driven oil shock and persistent inflation, hedge funds have been buying stocks at a pace that is hard to wrap your head around. According to Goldman Sachs data, funds purchased a record $86 billion in equities over just five trading sessions, driven mainly by systematic,
Stocks
If this week’s earnings season has a main event, it is the parade of Magnificent Seven reports due Wednesday and Thursday. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft all report after Wednesday’s close, with Apple following Thursday evening. Together they will provide the first comprehensive read on how AI
Stocks
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed last week at fresh all-time highs, and nobody who has been watching equities this month should be surprised. The S&P 500 is up more than 9% month to date, while the Nasdaq has surged over 15%. The Dow