Policy Watch

Argentina's Turnaround Is Being Watched Very Closely

The Peoples Economy

06 Apr 2026 — 1 min read

Argentina is the rare economy where things are genuinely getting better, and the speed of the improvement is catching the attention of policymakers well beyond Buenos Aires. After hitting inflation of nearly 290% in 2024, the country has brought that figure down toward low double digits through a combination of fiscal surpluses, a tightly managed exchange rate, and sweeping deregulation. The IMF has acknowledged the progress. International reserves, which were deeply negative as recently as 2023, are on track to turn positive this year.

Country risk , a measure of the extra return investors demand to lend to Argentina, fell from 2,500 basis points in late 2023 to around 600 by end of 2025. That is still high by global standards, but the direction matters. Argentina's trade surplus is projected at $13 billion in 2026. The government has maintained a primary fiscal surplus, its first in over a decade and is expected to regain access to international capital markets this year, contingent on sustained credibility.

The political context matters too. President Milei's party won a legislative boost in the 2025 midterms, giving his reform agenda more room. Neighboring Chile, Colombia, and Brazil, all heading toward elections, are watching the Argentine experiment and considering whether any of its elements can be applied at home without the same degree of short-term pain.

Argentina inflation (2026 projection): ~13.7% — Down from ~290% peak in 2024

Country risk premium (end-2025): ~600 bps — Down from 2,500 bps in late 2023

Trade surplus (2026 projection): $13 billion — Up from $9 billion in 2025

IMF disbursements: Ongoing — Supporting reserve accumulation

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